North Korea ending peace pact with South Korea?

[Guest Granny]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21709917

 

Would like to hear input as I am not completely sure what this could mean, but everytime I See more bits and pieces of North Korea and American affairs and they always stress how serious the issue could become. What do the US members think that this could turn into in the future?

[Guest RET.CW4.ThievingSix=US=]

Interesting read, but not surprising. Personally i think North Korea is a nation lost in time. I had no doubts they would officially sever ties with the Chinese. The north has very little to offer any nation as allies, and the only reason they even exist is because the world fears nuclear war. The North still remains as one of the few territories still conquerable by the south, and the Chinese. In doing so, either nation would have the support of most major countries in ending the threat of nuclear war. However i think this would also initiate WW3 as the common enemy has disappeared and everything is up for grabs.

 

On a side note, North korea sits in a very precarious position, they would have little to no chance of defending their entire borders from invaders without the aid of nuclear weapons, of which i don't believe they're capable of using effectively yet. If it were to sever ties permanently with all ally nations, i don't see the north lasting more than a decade. Famine and poverty is already widespread. They can't afford to develop weapons in the long term, which means their productivity will stagnate. More and more of their own people will die, and i doubt they can sustain a war effort. If they could, they would already have done so.

[Guest MAJ.Kaossilator=US=]

I think it's interesting that they have made no secret that their ultimate target would ideally be the US. However, they have no means of reaching the US, and the consensus is that they do not have the means of delivering any payload to the US. They are focused in the extreme on conventional warfare, and yet they share borders with China, Russia, South Korea, and are easily accessible along extensive coastline on both east and west. I don't have the means of knowing how accurate it is, but in other press releases it was estimated from war games scenarios that North Korea could be completely subdued in under 24 hours from any attack.

 

This whole thing smells like a kid growing up under his father's shadow, listening to rhetoric all his life, thinking he's invincible, and now that he has some real power he has no way of tempering every little whim he has, and he's frustrated that the whole world doesn't recognize his "worth". He's lost all credibility internationally, which means that the situation will continue to decline.

 

The tragedy is that if North Korea continues to delude itself, thousands will no doubt be killed before it all settles out. That's whether they continue to be economically stagnant or if they pursue a military conflict, making the loss of life inevitable.

 

I'm not sure about WWIII coming on the heels of any official conflict with North Korea... economics drives most modern conflicts, and I don't see the economic basis of a multi-national war in that sense.

[Guest RET.SSgt.Haterade=US=]

This is more about international attention and consolidate power internally than it has to do with operational capabilities. I also think this a cynical play, not Ung drinking his father's KoolAid since the dude is European educated.

 

North Korea is internationally isolated and it would make no strategic sense for any country to ally itself with them in war, so there's very little chance a North Korean war would create WW3.

[Guest RET.CW4.ThievingSix=US=]

Its not that north korea itself would create world war 3, its that in invading north korea, it would free up a patch of land that's invaluable to both south korea and china for economic expansion. That would no doubt spark some conflicts much like the gaza strip does now. That's if they decide to break diplomatic ties. Which i think is rather unlikely in the modern climate. However the question still remains, what happens to the north once the country is "liberated".

 

The majority of civilians wouldn't know a life outside that of the oppressive rule of dictators, and it could take decades to build a cohesive nation.

[Guest ENigMA0928]

Alot of what is going to happen is going to depend on how strongly china supports the new round of UN sanctions against the north. North Korea gets about 40% of their goods from china and more than 2/3 of it's economy. China has been supporting the UN sanctions alot more now than they have in the past. If China gives less support, goods, etc to the north the civilians are going to suffer and you may finally see an outcry against their government. The north threatens to drop the pact a few times a year and it's just posturing to try to show they will not bow to the US or UN sanctions against them.